Why Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi is the front-runner in the vice-president race
On June 6, when Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi put in his papers as the country’s minorities affairs minister, it looked like he was out in the cold. His Rajya Sabha tenure was coming to an end and the BJP leadership had decided not to renominate him for the Upper House. But now it seems the 64-year-old is a front-runner to become the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) candidate to be the country’s 14th vice-president. The other names doing the rounds are Madhya Pradesh chief minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan, Kerala governor Arif Mohammad Khan, Union minister Hardeep Puri and Punjab chief minister Amarinder Singh.
For the vice-president’s poll, the BJP has 400 of the total 784 votes. With allies, the BJP’s tally will zip past 453. So the most likely scenario is that the choice of the BJP parliamentary board will prevail. The election process started on July 5 with July 19 the last day for filing nominations. The opposition is also trying to pit their candidate, but with numbers heavily stacked in BJP’s favours, the battle—if there is one—will only be symbolic.
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It’s most likely that the BJP will announce their pick in the first half of this week. At present, one thing is clear. The BJP will not be giving M. Venkaiah Naidu a second term. Party leaders are reportedly discussing the pros and cons of the shortlisted names.
There is a strong school of thought in the BJP that this time the position of vice-president should go to someone from the minority community. The candidate, apart from running the upper house, must also be qualified to look after the key academic institutions headed by the vice-president. There is an impression that some sections among the Sikhs and Muslims are unhappy, so these four names–Naqvi, Arif Mohammad Khan, Puri and Amarinder Singh–are very relevant. Anyway, the BJP leadership believes that Chouhan, at the moment, is needed more in Madhya Pradesh. There was a buzz earlier that Chouhan could be replaced there with Union agriculture minister Narendra Tomar. But it appears the plan has been deferred for the moment. The name of Amarinder Singh was floated by his own team but his age and the image of being a reclusive politician doesn’t help his cause.
If the BJP decides to go with a Sikh face, the party also has two other choices, Union minister Hardeep Puri and Lok Sabha MP S.S. Ahluwalia. While Puri doesn’t have much Parliament experience, Ahluwalia’s equation with the BJP leadership is not that good. The Sikhs, especially in Punjab, have some residual anger from the farm union protests. PM Modi has personally made efforts to appease them. Could this be the big gesture that brings the community around?
Making a Muslim the country’s vice-president does make more political sense. The community is feeling cornered especially with what’s been happening during Modi 2. 0, with the BJP aggressively pushing its Hindutva agenda. The list is long–abrogation of Article 370, construction of Ram Mandir, legislation on triple talaq, covert support for Gyanvapi issue etc. Naqvi being a Shia—among the Muslims, the sect which has the least conflict with the BJP—appears to be the best bet for the party. A dyed-in-the-wool party man, he was sent to Rampur in Uttar Pradesh to anchor the BJP’s campaign to wrest the Muslim-dominated constituency in the Lok Sabha bypolls last month.
He succeeded in ensuring the victory of party candidate Ghanshyam Lodhi, who toppled SP strongman Azam Khan’s loyalist Asim Raja. Naqvi was also the party’s deputy leader in the Rajya Sabha and has parliamentary experience. Arif Mohammad Khan’s image is of a nationalist Muslim, one who is outspoken about regressive theology, orthodoxy and extremism in madrassas. A Pathan, Arif has close links to the orthodox Deoband school of thought, but this doesn’t deter him from pushing for the introduction of modern education. His disadvantage is that he retired from electoral politics long ago. PM Modi will take a final call on the issue, and he is known to throw surprises. Let’s see what he brings to the table this time. Next week is not far away.
