Japan is preparing for war with China, say all telltale signs
Despite its post-1945 World War II aversion to use of force, Japan seems to be undergoing a fundamental change in its defence philosophy given the existential threat from China, now that the communist nation has made its designs on Taiwan more than clear.
According to experts watching the East Asian theatre, there has been growing realisation, among Japanese people as their leaders, that China’s invasion on Taiwan will quickly deteriorate into an existential threat to the island nation, given the traditional rivalry for domination between the two countries as also China, after acquiring Taiwan, getting geographical advantage to hurt Japanese economic and military interests.
Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow’
Underlining that China was not a nation to abide by the rules-based global order, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in June this year said with a “strong sense of urgency” that “Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow”.
Kishida was speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue security in Singapore.
Citing the Russian war against Ukraine, Kishida said “countries’ perceptions on security have drastically changed around the world”.
Giving the examples of changes in military policy of Germany (which raised its defence budget to two percent of gross domestic product) and the veil of neutrality being shrugged off by Finland and Sweden to join the NATO, Kishida pointed to a change in Japan’s own thinking on war and further militarisation of its forces.
Japanese people have willed against China
A Nikkei survey this June revealed that over 90 per cent of Japanese believe that the country should be prepared for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, with over 40 per cent saying that Japan must actively improve its response capabilities by amending the laws and the constitution.
Those who thought Japan did not need to prepare against a Chinese contingency were as miniscule as 4 per cent.
But, 50 per cent people said that Japan’s anti-China preparations must be within the ambit of the framework of extant laws.
In yet another telling indication of the prevalent mood of Japan, 56 per cent respondents supported the Liberal Democratic Party-led government’s proposal to hike the defense budget to 1 per cent of Japan’s GDP; only 31 per cent disapproved.
Japan is doubling defence budget, beefing-up capabilities
According to The Japan Times, the country is considering to hike its defence spending to 40 trillion Yuan or $279 billion over the next five years, up from 27.47 trillion Yuan set earlier.
Japan intends to nearly double the defence budget by 2027, a ratio that will put it on par with the rest of NATO countries and would, at the same time, be a clear indication of a paradigm shift since traditionally Japan has kept defence spending to less than one per cent of the GDP.
According to a report in The Japan Times, the country is seriously considering buying US Tomahawk cruise missiles to quickly bolster its deterrence capacity.
“The plan to purchase sea-launched Tomahawks, which have a range of up to 2,500 kilometers and can travel relatively low to the ground, emerged as the government aims to declare the possession of “counterstrike capability” in its key long-term security policy guideline to be updated by the end of this year,” the report said.
“Japan has been trying to develop its own standoff missiles, capable of attacking enemy vessels from outside their firing range and of being fired not only from land but also from ships and aircraft.
To achieve the goal, it is planning to extend the range of the Ground Self-Defense Force’s Type-12 surface-to-ship guided missiles,” the report from October this year in The Japan Times added.
US-Japan military cooperation has peaked
According to reports, the Japanese Self-Defense Forces and the US military have jointly drawn up an operation plan to counteract China in case it attacks Taiwan. The plan, much to the dislike of China, envisages setting up an attack base along the southwest Nansei island chain. Although, a tweaking of the existent legal framework would be needed to give final shape to this plan.
In March this year, Japan and the United States, in a sign of deepening military cooperation, conducted airborne landing assaults together for the first time, involving amphibious Japanese troops and the US Marines as part of a three-week joint exercise to encourage interoperability.
The two forces carried out drills at the foothills of Mount Fuji involving, according to a Reuters report, 400 troops from Japan’s Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade (ARDB), and 600 US marines.
Reuters quoted Grant Newsham, a retired US Marine Corps colonel, who advised Japan when it set up its amphibious force, as saying: “The real significance from this training is that the Marines and the ARDB are doing serious combat training of a sort that would have been unthinkable a decade ago.”
All this preparation and a rather aggressive stance vis-à-vis China is nothing short of a revision of Japan’s post-World War II stance. The biggest marker of this sort-of-a revolution is that it is Fumio Kishida carrying out these changes and not a rather more hawkish former PM Shinzo Abe.
