Chinese invasion of Taiwan could come as soon as 2027, warns expert
Taiwan’s foreign minister Joseph Wu has said that 2027 will be the year that China will seek to invade Taiwan. It comes as tensions across the Taiwan strait are at their highest in many years, as China flies fighter jets towards Taiwanese airspace daily.
Mr Wu added that the current arrangement, in which Taiwan are self-governing but doesn’t outright declare independence “won’t last forever.”
In doing so, he acknowledges that the island will one day be assimilated by China.
Currently, Taiwan is a democratic, self-governing island that China sees as its own.
This is despite the fact that it has never been under control by the ruling Communist Party, whose goal to assimilate the country is one of President Xi Jinping’s “core interests.”
Mr Wu acknowledged that “the situation in the last year compared to the two previous years is much worse”.
However, he said: “To me, 2027 is the year that we need to watch out for.”
“In 2027, Xi Jinping is likely to go into his fourth term, and, if in his previous three terms he cannot claim any achievement during his office, he might need to think about something else for him to claim as his achievement or his legacy.
“If you look at the Chinese situation right now, the economy is going down.
People are not happy, the real estate business seems to be melting down.
“If Xi Jinping cannot change the situation domestically in China, you might want to resort to the use of force or creating a crisis externally to divert domestic attention or to show to the Chinese that he has accomplished something.
“We are concerned that Taiwan might become his scapegoat.”
Chinese fighter jets are currently flying towards and bordering Taiwanese airspace, crossing the “median line”, which is the unofficial maritime border.
The number of jets crossing increased five-fold between 2020 and 2022 with the highest-ever daily count recorded just three weeks ago.
Mr Wu said that the “worst case scenario” happening is now “more likely” than in previous years, and described how precarious the situation can be.
“Look at the proximity of the Chinese aircraft to our aircraft,” he said.
“If they cross the 24 nautical miles zone, some of our weapons systems might have to target those Chinese aircraft, and that might spark an accident, even though it might not be intentional for the Chinese pilots to cross the 24 nautical miles.
“Very often, you see the sum of a tiny little accident might spark into a major war.
“We worry that might happen.”
The only thing to prevent that sudden escalation now, he added, is “self-restraint”.
“Our pilots are very well-trained; they know they cannot fire the first shot,” Mr Wu said.
