Erdogan faces defeat after 20 years dismantling Turkey’s democracy – but don’t expect him to go quietly
Beware writing off an authoritarian leader as wily and ruthless as Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who as kingmaker, premier and finally president, has dominated and gradually defiled Turkish democracy over two decades.
But by putting aside their differences and uniting behind one man, Turkey’s opposition parties are on the verge of finally removing Erdogan from power; something that promises to reverse a period of horrific rights abuses – and enable Turkey, a country with a unique role as a nexus between East and West, to reset its ties with Europe and the US.
The latest polls suggest that the broad, six-party coalition, headed by the bespectacled, mild-mannered 74-year-old Kemal Kilicdaroglu – dubbed Turkey’s Gandhi – is tantalisingly close to obtaining a majority of the vote he would need for outright victory in the first round on Sunday.
A respected poll released on Thursday put him on 49.3 per cent. Two other polls place him slightly above the 50 per cent mark.
After the polls were published, the opposition campaign received another boost with news that another, minor figure in the presidential race, Muharrem Ince of the Memleket (Homeland) party, withdrew from the race after his involvement in sex tape scandal emerged.
Many pundits have predicted that neither Kilicdaroglu nor Erdogan will win outright in the first round – that would mean a run-off on 28 May.
But the importance of the election is not in doubt.
The opposition has vowed to return Turkey to a parliamentary form of government. In 2018, Erdogan engineered changes to the constitution that created a presidential system in Turkey and abolished the post of the prime minister. Naturally, he was the president, and benefitted from the new – and huge – concentration of power in the role of head of state.
Erdogan, 69, who with family members, has been accused of corruption, is determined to cling to power. He is aware, like most autocrats, that out of office he will be much more vulnerable to the activities of prosecutors, particularly if the new government is able to remove Erdogan stooges from the country’s judiciary and other institutions.
Ahead of the election, Erdogan has, as usual, stoked culture wars to appeal to his conservative base.
He has also deployed massive public spending this year — offering tax relief, cheap loans and energy subsidies — to woo voters. But this, together with adherence to low interest rates, has caused the currency to crash and helped stoke inflation, which, now running at over 40 per cent, has further hit living standards.
The election comes just months after the deadly 6 February earthquake that rocked the country’s south-east, killing more than 50,000 people in Turkey and Syria. The incumbent has not been helped by the quake deaths, which were largely blamed on the corruption that enabled shoddily constructed buildings to be signed off with cheque books.
Erdogan’s support remains strong, however, in much of the provincial heartlands where his Islamic leanings and cult of personality endures.
Kilicdaroglu, if he wins the election, has vowed to reinstate the rule of law, which has gradually been crushed by Erdogan. Kilicdaroglu’s coalition says it will release the thousands wrongfully jailed under Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) and lift restrictions on key freedoms, including the ability of journalists operate without fear of detention.
