Slow start likely, but overall monsoon set to be ‘normal’: IMD
The monsoon this year may have a sluggish start with the country receiving “below normal” rainfall in June. However, the entire four-month (June-September) period is likely to collectively get “normal” rainfall, according to the latest forecasts of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) released on Friday. There is a 55% probability of “normal to above normal” rainfall during the season in India.
Though the country as a whole may receive lower end of the “normal” rainfall, northwest India, including Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and western Uttar Pradesh — the grain bowl of the country — will see “below normal” rainfall due to the impact of the El Niño conditions (unusual warming of surface waters in eastern Pacific Ocean) that is generally linked to weak monsoon rains. The latest forecast from different global models indicates high probabilities for the development of El Niño conditions during the upcoming monsoon season.
“Quantitatively, the southwest (summer) monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 96% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of ± 4%,” said D S Pai, head of the IMD’s Environment Monitoring and Research Center, while releasing stage-II long range forecast carrying prediction on spatial distribution of rainfall.
IMD claims that the positive impact of the other key conditions – Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) – will, however, compensate for the negative El Niño situation to an extent in other regions, making it an overall “normal” monsoon in the country. “It is El Nino and positive IOD this year. The impact of El Nino in central India is likely to be compensated by positive IOD. But that may not happen in the case of northwest India,” said Pai.
Currently, neutral IOD conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean, but the latest forecast indicates the development of positive IOD conditions during the monsoon season.
The “below normal” rainfall in the first month of the rainy season may affect sowing operation in early Kharif (summer crops) period. In June, “below normal” monthly rainfall is expected over most parts of the country except some areas of south peninsular India, northwest India, extreme north India and some isolated pockets of northeast India, where “above normal” rainfall is expected.
The Met department, however, insisted that the monsoon core zone — the region where farming operations mostly depend on seasonal rainfall — is likely to get “normal” rainfall, indicating smooth farming operations in these areas beyond June
The summer monsoon normally sets in over Kerala on June 1 with a standard deviation of about seven days. The IMD has already predicted that the monsoon onset over Kerala this year is likely to be around June 4 with a model error of ± 4 days.
