Projections show Telangana’s Total Fertility Rate will fall to 1.5 by 2031-35, far below the replacement level. Reports by Census of India and the UN say the State is moving towards below replacement population and an ageing demographic
Hyderabad: Telangana is poised to become one of India’s most demographically mature states, a status that means there will be a near halt to population growth. Projections indicate its Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is set to drop to 1.5 by 2031-35, based on the ‘Population Projections for India and States 2011-35′, a recent report by Census of India.
The sharp decline, which is accompanied by increased longevity among Telangana’s population, is not just a state-level trend. It reflects the national fertility levels highlighted in last month’s UNFPA (United Nations Population Fund) 2025 ‘State of World Population’ report.
The 1.5 TFR for Telangana is much lower than the 1.9 national TFR mentioned in the UNFPA report, which makes Telangana a key state driving the country’s shift towards below replacement fertility.
The ‘Population Projections for India and States 2011-35’ report indicates that Telangana’s progress in socio-economic development, access to health, and education is leading to this near halt in population growth.
The State’s Population Growth Rate, at 7.1 per thousand in 2011-15, a period covering the erstwhile undivided state, is projected to fall to a near-zero rate of 0.3 per thousand in 2031-35.
The decline is steady across the years with the rate dropping from 5.4 (2016-2020) to 3.5 (2021-23) and further to 1.7 by 2026-2030.
The recent United Nations report noted that the real concern linked to dropping fertility levels is not over-population or underpopulation.
The report said the drop in fertility rates reflects the failure to meet the reproductive goals and needs of individuals, showing the preference of many people to either have fewer children or delay the decision to have children.
Based on these reports and data, Telangana’s population in the coming decades will fall below replacement levels, which means the population will not produce enough children to replace earlier generations.
In its report, the United Nations urged regions facing such population changes to focus on policies that support the ageing population, manage their healthcare needs and ensure proper social security systems.
Some important data:
- Total Fertility Rate of Telangana projected to reach 1.5 by 2031-35.
- This is well below the replacement level of 2.1.
- Lower than the 1.9 national TFR reported in the UN report.
- Telangana to have a low birth rate (Crude Birth Rate) of 10.2 per thousand by 2031-35.
- Telangana to see a rise in ageing population and a drop in productive age group.
