India needs to do a tightrope walking while insulating strategic relations with the US and broadening trade relations with Europe
The rapidly changing global geopolitics has thrown up new challenges and opportunities in equal measure for India. New Delhi’s diplomatic skills will be put to the test in the days ahead as the maverick United States President Donald Trump is seeking to dramatically alter the world order to suit his ‘America First’ agenda. India needs to do a tightrope walking while insulating the high-potential strategic relations with the US from reciprocal tariff threats on one hand and broadening trade relations with Europe, which finds itself dumped by America, on the other. Close on the heels of an explosive showdown with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the Oval Office in full media glare, Trump has ordered an immediate halt to military aid to an embattled Ukraine. This has taken the strained relations between the two countries to a new low, leaving Kyiv totally vulnerable. Under former President Joe Biden, Washington remained Kyiv’s strongest backer, supplying weapons, intelligence and financial assistance. But Trump 2.0 is taking a starkly different approach that is more transactional than ideological. The failure to finalise a minerals deal between the US and Ukraine further underscores the growing rift. By siding with Russian President Vladimir Putin and blaming Zelenskyy for starting the war, the bloodiest in Europe since World War II, Trump has upended the geopolitical order in the region. His impulsive and unpredictable diplomatic manoeuvres have put him at odds with long-term allies in Europe, who had so far enjoyed America’s support in isolating Russia.
The latest US action, suspending military aid to Kyiv, has infused a sense of urgency among the European nations to unitedly stand behind Zelenskyy and continue military support to him to fight Russian forces. Trump sees a resolution to the Ukraine war as an opportunity to secure alternative sources of critical minerals, reducing US dependence on China and allowing Trump to take a more aggressive approach towards Beijing. So far, India has maintained a well-calibrated policy of neutrality and equidistance in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and is rooted in the peaceful resolution of the conflict through dialogue and diplomacy, including engagement between both parties. Its focus has been to strike a balance between protecting its national interests and taking a nuanced position over emerging geopolitics. On one hand, New Delhi delivered a blunt message to Putin that a solution to any conflict cannot be found on the battlefield while, on the other, it remained committed to the robust and time-tested friendship with Russia, even at the cost of causing discomfort to Washington. Now, with both the UK and France taking the lead in drawing up a peace plan for Ukraine, India needs to step in and present a pragmatic solution. It is already on record expressing support for a ‘just and lasting peace based on respect for international law, principles of the UN charter and territorial integrity and sovereignty.’
