Omicron lineages do not pose a threat, say experts
The BA.4 and BA.5. the two new lineages of Omicron that are sweeping across South Africa, do not pose a threat or have the potential to become a reason to worry in Telangana and other parts of the country, geneticists and experts said.
The BA.4 and BA.5 lineages of Omicron do have distinct growth advantage over the earlier Omicron variants of BA.1 and BA.2. As a result, both the lineages have triggered fresh wave of Covid infections in Gauteng province of South Africa, where the first Omicron variant BA.1 was reported in November, 2021.
Given the past experience with BA.1, which was reported in November 2021, and quickly caused major Omicron wave in India, there is a distinct possibility that they might be circulating undetected in many Indian States. “I don’t see a new wave or surge of infections due to BA.4, BA.5 or BA.1.12.1 variants of Omicron in India. Due to economic activity and no restrictions, there could be a few localised surges in infections. However, chances of Omicron variants triggering surges similar to earlier three waves in the country, is remote,” says Dr M Vidyasagar, Distinguished Professor, IIT-Hyderabad and member of SUTRA Consortium, a group of researchers from IIT-Kanpur and Hyderabad, who developed a highly accurate mathematical model for pandemics, said.
At present, the total number of Covid infections in India, when compared to other countries is miniscule. “In Germany, France and other European countries, the daily Covid infections due to Omicron are hovering between 1 lakh and 2 lakh. In contrast, we only have 3,000 positive cases in India. People must realise that India can’t afford to adopt zero Covid strategy such as China and impose harsh regulations,” he said.
Top public health expert from South Africa, Dr Tulio de Oliviera took to social media platform Twitter to explain the potential of BA.4 and BA.5. “The BA.4 and BA.5 have distinct growth advantage over the earlier Omicron variants BA.1 and BA.2. It looks like Covid-19 may be evolving differently and that we may not need a new variant to cause a new wave of infection. We are seeing this with BA.4 and 5 in SA and with BA.2.12.1 on the east coast of the USA,” he tweeted.
Former Director of (CSIR)-Institute of Genomic and Integrative Biology (IGIB), New Delhi, Dr Anurag Agrawal, however, has maintained that there is no risk. “The third wave of Covid in India was mostly due to BA.2. Hence the threat of a new wave by similar to BA.4, BA.5 or BA2,12,1 is lower,” he tweeted.
