Given US President Trump’s transactional mindset, the escalating tension between Washington and Brussels may push the US closer to Russia
By Sanjay Turi
The dramatic mineral deal between the US and Ukraine evokes a famous quote from American attorney and President Nixon’s political adviser, Charles Colson: “When you have them by the balls, their hearts and minds will follow”.
This is a time when Ukraine is fighting for its survival, and powerful nations, particularly the US under Donald Trump, are primarily focused on its natural resources, prioritising their own material interests stemming from the outcome of this conflict. This is not just a deal but more of a war, politics and a global power shift.
While the Trump Administration’s efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine War swiftly are seen as a welcoming step, the US President’s underlying agenda to acquire Ukrainian minerals under the guise of resolving the conflict is being criticised globally.
The post-Ukraine scenario will encourage countries worldwide to pursue nuclear programmes. Given the current geopolitical vulnerability of Ukraine, the post-Ukraine world order will further discourage nuclear disarmament, allowing nuclear powers like North Korea, India, Israel and Pakistan to continue retaining their nukes at any cost.
Heated Meeting
A famous proverb, “With great power comes great responsibility”, originally coined by French author Voltaire but popularised by the Marvel Comics hero Spider-Man, reminds us of another well-known quote by the 16th US President, Abraham Lincoln: “Nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man’s character, give him power”. In light of Trump’s unilateral materialistic dictation and the Ukrainian mineral deal, the recent heated exchange between President Trump and President Zelenskyy has once again brought this quote into the spotlight.
Zelenskyy’s unsuccessful meeting with Trump seems to be uniting European countries in support of Ukraine’s struggle against Russia. However, it would not be incorrect to assume that opposing Trump-led America’s interests may carry significant risks to the entire continent. Alongside French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent assurance to provide a French nuclear umbrella for Europe, the European Union’s efforts to support Ukraine against Russia might ultimately push Trump to make a reckless decision to align more closely with Russia, potentially leading to the scenario that Trump already warned Zelenskyy about it: “Zelenskyy is gambling with World War III.”
Russia’s Move
Russian President Putin has already hinted at offering access to rare earth minerals from his country’s mainland, including those in Russian-occupied Ukraine. Given Trump’s materialistic mindset, the escalating tension between Washington and Brussels may push the US closer to Russian camaraderie.
By portraying European groupings as anti-Trump, the Russian state media has smartly managed to convey to Washington that European policies are not just against Russian interests but also the Trump-led United States. Consequently, it is Russia, not Ukraine, that favours peace. In this context, the Russian Foreign Minister, in an interview with Russian State Media, stated that Ukraine’s allies are manipulating the European Peacekeeping Forces deployed in Ukraine to continue their actions against Russia.
In the wake of Trump’s failed meeting with Zelenskyy, which led to the reformation of strong European groupings, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth’s recent order to cease US Cyber Command and Offensive Cyber Operations against Russia has given President Putin an edge over Ukraine. This shift could also be seen as a sign of Trump’s camaraderie with Putin in the long run.
The war between Ukraine and Russia began over Ukraine’s desire to join NATO. If the US were to exit NATO, it could facilitate Ukraine’s admission into the alliance. It is important to note that membership in NATO would guarantee Ukraine’s security, as Article 5 states that an attack on one member is considered an attack on all, and this is exactly what Zelenskyy is looking for. While Zelenskyy has nothing more left to lose from the US’ disapproval of the EU, Trump’s imposition of tariffs on the EU and his potential exit from NATO could lead to widespread devastation, paving the way for a new world order driven by multilateralism.
The post-Ukraine war world order will further discourage nuclear disarmament, allowing nuclear powers like North Korea, India, Israel and Pakistan to continue retaining their nukes at any cost
Also, the growing divide between the US and Europe seems to provide a significant opportunity for India to expand its trade with nations affected by the US policies. Alongside the UK’s trade talks, the European Union’s increasing trade agreements with India may be partly a result of Trump’s tariffs on EU goods. Following EU President Ursula von der Leyen’s recent visit to India, Putin criticised her, stating that Europe once viewed India as a third-world country. Now, that same Europe is seeking to strengthen bilateral trade and political ties with India. In this context, the emerging geopolitical dynamics in Europe also remind us of another famous quote by Harry S Truman: “The only thing new in the world is the history you do not know.”
Preparing without US
As Trump could exit NATO at any moment, the EU Commission has proposed mobilising around $840 billion for the ‘ReArm Europe’ plan. Now, the question arises: How long will it take for Europe to produce arms and ammunition with its industrial capacity?
Defence experts believe there is no doubt that Europe produces high-quality weapons; however, it lacks the industrial capacity to meet Ukraine’s armament needs in its conflict with Russia. Producing weapons on an industrial scale takes many years. As Europe’s security guarantee right now is in the hands of the US through NATO, a US exit from this organisation at this time would leave Europe vulnerable to Russia in the region. While rearming itself is a good idea for the EU, European leaders, prioritising human lives, must decide wisely and cooperate with Trump, at least for the time being.
Tariff War
When significantly big organisations such as the BRICS, African Union, ASEAN and SCO are rapidly moving towards switching to trade in local currencies, Trump’s insane steps, like imposing tariffs and threatening to exit important international organisations, seem to be paving the way for the smooth transition to de-dollarisation in the future.
Trump’s highly centralised American policies and his global trade war, especially with China, are disrupting the supply chain worldwide, inadvertently providing India an opportunity to attract American investors and shape its Vision 2047.
However, the deeply ingrained bureaucratic hurdles of establishing a business in India pose the biggest challenge. While registering a company in Vietnam takes 3 to 4 months, it can take up to 5 to 6 years in India. Another major challenge is India’s significant skill gap. According to the report published by the Ministry of Skill Development, India has a 2.3% formally skilled workforce compared to 52% in the US, 80% in Japan and 96% in South Korea.
Though India has improved over the last ten years, this progress may not be sufficient to fully exploit this opportunity arising from Trump’s tariff war.
