Popularity poll places Tejashwi Yadav ahead of CM Nitish Kumar
Nitish Kumar’s political game will go down in the history of Bihar. The chief minister, who was sworn-in to the top post for eighth time on Wednesday, dumped the Bharatiya Janata Party and re-entered the Mahagathbandhan. But who has benefitted the most from this political upheaval in Bihar? It is RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav, as per an opinion poll conducted by C-Voter.
As Janata Dal (United) broke off ties with the NDA in Bihar, questions over the ramification of such a decision, of the choice of next chief minister, and over Tejashwi Yadav’s decision to join ties with Nitish Kumar were at the top of everyone’s mind. India Today conducted a survey in association with C-Voter in Bihar to find answers to the above questions.
TEJASHWI YADAV AHEAD IN POPULARITY POLLS
The biggest question in the survey was about the choice of the next chief minister. Tejashwi Yadav ranked ahead of Nitish Kumar or any BJP leader as people’s choice for Bihar CM.
Though Tejashwi Yadav has been sworn in as deputy chief minister in the Nitish Kumar-led government, 43 per cent of the respondents in the C-Voter’s opinion polls favoured the RJD leader as the next Bihar Chief Minister. In comparison, Nitish Kumar was first choice as CM for only 24 per cent of those surveyed. Meanwhile, 19 per cent chose a BJP leader as Bihar CM.
The surge in Tejashwi’s popularity and the corresponding drop in Nitish Kumar’s popularity is perhaps a warning sign for the Bihar CM.
WHO IS 1ST CHOICE FOR WOMEN VOTERS?
Here again, Tejashwi Yadav took an apparent lead. The RJD leader’s popularity has seen a jump across all sections of society. In the survey, 41.8 percent men chose Tejashwi Yadav for CM’s post, while 23.8 per cent votes went in Nitish’s account. The BJP managed to get 19.6 per cent votes.
Nitish Kumar also witnessed a decline in popularity among women, the community that backed him in 2020.
As per the survey, 44 per cent of women considered Tejashwi as their first choice as Bihar CM, while only 23.3 per cent women chose Nitish Kumar. The Bharatiya Janata Party again came in third, managing to get just 17.5 per cent.
WHAT ABOUT OBC, MUSLIM COMMUNITY?
If we look at the popularity on the basis of castes, here too, Tejashwi Yadav seems to be ahead of Nitish Kumar. In the OBC category, 44.6 per cent people were in favour of Tejashwi Yadav, while Nitish Kumar got 24.7 votes, and a BJP CM got approval of 12.4 per cent of those surveyed.
Tejashwi Yadav was also openly favoured by the Muslim community. Currently, 54 per cent of Muslims consider Tejashwi Yadav as a better CM, and only 30 per cent are in favour of Nitish Kumar. The saffron party is far behind in the race, with just 3.3 per cent voting in favour of a Bihar CM.
IF POLLS WERE HELD NOW
Tejashwi Yadav is clearly ahead in the popularity race as Bihar CM. But what about alliances? Where do they stand in public popularity?
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In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Bihar voted fiercely in favor of the NDA, with the alliance getting 54 per cent votes. But in August 2022, this figure has dropped down to 41 per cent. Within three years, the NDA is seeing a loss of 13 per cent.
On the other hand, the Mahagatbandhan is taking direct advantage of the damage that has been inflicted on the NDA. The Mahagatbandhan got 31 per cent votes in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. But now that the equations have changed on the ground, the Mahagathbandhan also seems to be benefiting from it. The alliance witnessed a jump of 16 per cent, with 46 per cent votes now in its favour.
When we look at this vote percentage on the basis of seats, the NDA’s tally can come down to 14, as per an opinion poll conducted by C-Voter. This could prove to be a big setback for the party as it had won 39 seats in a clean sweep in 2019. But with Nitish Kumar jumping ships, the NDA is now suffering a loss.
Nitish Kumar joining hands with the RJD and Congress seems to have changed the fortune of the grand alliance. And the changes are also being reflected on the ground.
