The proposed largest dam on the Brahmaputra being built by China could be its strategy to weaponise water against India
By Sanjay Turi
Kofi Annan, former Secretary-General of the United Nations, once said that “there will be fierce competition for freshwater, and it may well become a source of conflict and wars in the future”.
In the name of delivering renewable energy and achieving carbon neutrality status by 2060, China, on the Brahmaputra River, is constructing the largest dam ever built on the planet Earth at a cost of $137 billion. The dam has the capacity to produce 60GW, which is equivalent to India’s almost 80% (47GW) of total hydropower electricity.
Apart from three existing major dams on this river, constructing another dam with three times more production capacity raises doubt that China has built these to fulfil its energy needs. Rather, it seems to serve the country’s geopolitical purpose, potentially intended to target the downstream or lower riparian States of India.
Potential Impacts
India’s countermeasure intention to spend $1 billion on the construction of 12 hydropower projects in Arunachal Pradesh probably stands nowhere compared to China’s dam project on the Brahmaputra River. This project, having the capacity to serve the electricity needs of more than 300 million people, is not just a dam; rather, it is a kind of massive geostrategic weapon being deployed against India.
Getting into a conflict of economic rivalry with China at this time will only hurt the Indian treasury unnecessarily. China, being an upper riparian nation, is always in an advantageous position. For India, in this context, it is quite difficult to neutralise China’s engineering prowess by just spending billions of dollars on the construction of relatively much smaller dams in the Himalayan State of Arunachal Pradesh.
India should convince Bangladesh, making it realise that the project is a threat to millions of lives in the region
Additionally, the Himalayan ecology is so fragile that it does not allow us to respond to China this way. Even if we try to respond this way, it may result in environmental and ecological destruction, further paving the way for uncontrollable natural catastrophes in the Himalayan region.
Apart from endangering the Himalayan ecosystem, the Brahmaputra dam project, after its completion, is expected to have control over the water supply in the entire region of northeastern States of India as well as Bangladesh, increasing the unwanted risk of dependency on China for water.
National Security Adviser Ajit Doval recently met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in China. Their discussion over Expert Level Mechanism (ELM) for hydrological data sharing shows the urgency of having a solution for potential conflict coming from the completion of this project.
Genevieve Donnellon-May, geopolitical and global strategy adviser, too has warned that the Brahmaputra dam project would probably become a major bone of contention between India and China, possibly leading to a ‘water war’.
Post-Galwan clash, we witnessed a very strained relationship between India and China, which was, under the leadership of Russian President Putin, defrosted during the Kazan Summit. China’s ignorance and its unilateral dictation over hydrological data sharing for transboundary rivers may add a new layer of contention and widen the bilateral gap between the two countries.
Geostrategic Perspective
Forcing India to spend millions of dollars on unnecessary expenses is an old technique of China. The recent news of China approving 40 5th Generation Stealth fighter jets to Pakistan is nothing but an additional technique to force India to increase its defence budget. The money that should be used for developmental projects and poverty eradication programmes, may be now diverted to buying modern arms and ammunition in the name of dealing with the increasing threat from Pakistan. This is exactly what China would want India to do.
Therefore, China’s strategy of weaponising water against India should not be responded to in a way China wants us to do, rather, India should use this as an opportunity to resume its diplomatic talks with Bangladesh. By diplomatically getting engaged with Bangladesh, India should convince Bangladesh, making it realise that the Brahmaputra dam project is a threat to millions of lives in the region, including Bangladesh. By opening multiple diplomatic channels, India should engage with Bangladesh and try to make it raise its voice for having cooperative and transparent hydrological data-sharing policies.
As the parliamentary election in Bangladesh is likely to take place this year, India must play smart. It should try to break the strengthening ties between China and Bangladesh while defrosting its strained diplomatic relations with the Yunus-led regime. Indian policymakers must not let this opportunity go.
Another Aspect
India has been facing objections from Pakistan for trying to construct dams and hydropower projects on the Indus River basins. As a lower riparian state, Pakistan has always shown concern and objected to India’s dam projects over the Indus basins. By unveiling this project, China may strategically use Pakistan to neutralise India’s obvious cries and concerns over the Brahmaputra dam project.
Although Indian hydropower projects over the Indus basin nowhere stand with China’s Brahmaputra dam project, it certainly paves the way for India to intensify its decades-long pending mega-dam projects over the Indus basin.
